Monday, January 7, 2013

Make a Wish

Remember the Make a Wish Foundation? This was a foundation that provided a dream come true for a deserving person who faced a terrible disease etc....There is a difference between "Make a Wish" and investment....And that difference is important it seems to me. When one is young, one thinks as a child, but then later, when one is an adult, one learns. And a child relies on "Daddy" or "Mommy" to make the decisions, or in business matters, an "investment professional." One assumes that the professional knows best, as in the tv show "Father Knows Best." However...the current ethical requirements for investment professionals requires that they not be guilty of negligence, and not that they in fact have followed the objectives specifically or have acted in the best interest of the client...Thus...eventually, the investor comes to the realization that knowledge is important, and that each person, man and woman, young and old investor alike, must become knowledgeable about investing. Objectives must be thrashed out, and the investments must be made that match these goals, and when a firm is used to make the investments, one must make sure that each transaction is done correctly. As a young man, my mom and dad were bond investors, and I remember on the kitchen refrig was a list of the bonds, and when the dividends paid, and what the amount was. My mom used to check off the dividend checks as they were received..and I also remember the effort that she made when a check was not received..letters etc...she made sure..Nobody made sure for her. And so, some fifty years later, i also am checking off the dividend checks, even if they are electronically deposited...and I think of how my mom's checklist showed me the way..thanks, mom.

Friday, January 4, 2013

Who do you blame for your losses---that is the question:

Let's imagine that you have created a product...and after the first introduction of the product, the first consumers are able to give feedback on how the product worked for them....imagine that the original designers and creators of the product can observe...through a glass viewing area...i think you can imagine the result...any feedback on any little improvement of the product seems very similar to what would happen if a mother presented her child to her relatives and they had a few corrections as to how to make the child better...in short.... If you buy a stock, and it does not go up...cut your losses quickly...whatever you thought must have been wrong...and those who do not recognize this fact quickly face huge losses..in stock selection and life...the ability to recognize when a wave is not going to be the best to ride...but the wise course is to quickly cut off the ride and find another wave...be a surfer..not stubborn and fighting to be right...but being flexible...and ready..for the new...

Thursday, January 3, 2013

Are you a Transaction or a Relationship Investor? Knowing counts

Back in the 1980's when I was in training to be a broker for E.F. Hutton, ah yes the days when everybody listened to what E.F. Hutton said, in the very last hour of instruction a psychologist came into the lecture hall, and had us answer 20 questions, and then scored our answers. On the basis of our answers, a total score indicated whether we were the type of person that loved "transactions" or loved "relationship investing better." As he strolled up and down the isle...he stopped by me and smiled: "Yup he said, you are a transaction guy". A transaction guy loves interacting with the public, selling things, and whether it is a large sale for small sale, loves the thrill of closing the sale. I remember Phil Laut, the author of "Money is My Friend" asking the small business owners to try just selling a pencil or pen to someone...just anything small...just to get practice in the process...the total dollar amount of the sale was not important.. You might wonder why it mattered...yes I did love stocks and trading....and on some wild and crazy days, four hours was long term....I just got impatient to take profits.... On the other hand, one of my friends in the class, when asked what his marketing plan was, he responded that he planned to sit on a beach near his home, and just chat with the millionaires that lived nearby...I was stunned. No analysis, No detail or anything...and then he mentioned that one of his neighbors had already penciled in two million for him to start his book with...nice... The reason that half hour of instruction mattered for me, ---- I now knew what my button was, and knew that I needed to work on my relationship skills since they were a weakness...and now when I am looking for a full service broker, when I do look for one, I look for somebody to trust, and also for someone who has the ability to and capacity to develop a relationship long term...with a firm that likewise is interested in more than "churn and burn." Make a note of it.

Sunday, December 30, 2012

In a Day of Crisis: Turn OFF the Noise: WATCH the tape:

One of the stark things about Wall Street is the disparity between the TALK and the reality....If you listen to the pundits, you hear nothing but confusing difference based on their stock positions...but if you watch the actual tape, or the stock transactions, you can see what folks are actually putting up their money to buy or sell...and there is a big difference between the two. In times of sharp volatility, such as tomorrow possibly, December 31, 2012, it is a wonderful time to try this out...just turn off your computer or tv screen to CNBC and just watch what the folks are buying or selling, and go with the flow.....I have bought a surfer poster just for the occasion so that I would not forget the lesson...Enjoy.

Monday, December 24, 2012

Every Day in Every Way...things are getting Cheaper; Tales From Normal, Mn.: FICTION

How does one truly hedge for a classic case of deflation???? this was the problem of the thirties, this was the problem that Bernanke did not want to face after the crisis of 2008, and after all this stimulus...this is still the problem that we may face...and it is unclear that we are any better able to solve it than Greece or Japan...and you? any ideas?

The Calm Before the Storm: 2012

It is a little weird, that in December 2012, after the failure of the political parties to resolve the fiscal cliff issue, there has been no plunge of the stock market that would reflect the dire situation that we are in as a nation....it is a little funny and weird...the vix which should reflect the volatility should be higher....everything should be more volatile..yet it is not..this is a little strange...make a note of it....