Sunday, October 6, 2013
"The Future is Wide Open" and other funny stories
Whenever my family leaves town, or at least in the old days when the kids were in the back of the Ford Aerostar...we used to insert a cd of Tom Petty's greatest hits, and the first number or so was the song with the line "The Future is wide open." It was kind of a soothing ritual...and during times of stress...like leaving for college...leaving for a job...etc, etc,,,well to summarize...we wore out the cd...I am not sure statistically whether we did indeed reduce the amount of stress...we did not have a proper test group...but still....here is my review of the concept.
Whenever we listened to the song, as the older guy in the group, I just wondered whether anyone had really tested just how wide open the future was....and then last week, I heard a presentation in which a guru said that the stock market pundits who say that one should "never limit your upside" are simply full of "xxxt"....The truth that the money pros all know is that one "ALWAYS" limits the upside, and takes the other side of the transaction, making oneself the banker, not the river gambler....writing calls, shorting...anything but gambling on the eternal upside....
So there it is,,,about the "Future is Wide Open"....and now I think of Tom Petty as a financial guru...I do need to get another cd so I can never forget the message....
Charts Describe the Past; Options Speculate on the Future: Do not confuse the two
Whenever one reads a written piece of promotion from a Wall street firm, one usually finds the disclaimer, "Past results to not imply future performance." And one might wonder why this is so...because it is required to tell investors that the past is gone...done...and yesterday does not matter...
Someone needs to tell those chart guys the above paragraph....all the chart guys seems to think that they seem to know....trust me..they don't...and legally cannot....make a note of it.
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