Over the past thirty years there has been a transition from a structured investment environment to one that is "deregulated"---it has been marked by the end of the era of salaried brokers with higher commissions and research, to a world of $7 trades and computer simulations. It has been a movement from wise older traders to young, churn and burn robots.
"Where has been the saving,?" you might ask. I like to compare the situation to the airline industry. Years ago, when airfares were higher, and Northwest Airlines had ZERO debt, the transportation industry and financial services industry was seen as a public sector, where the government had a say in an organized and supervised code of conduct for all participants----those days are gone. When I fly, I always feel more comfortable when I know there has been maintanance done on the engines. The cheapest fare is not consoling if I see flames coming from the engines. Ditto for the financial services industry.
When investment just becomes a transaction, when people just become a transaction, and when "churn and burn" becomes the overriding element in business, the customer always loses. Consequently, I reject the notion that nostalgia for the good old days of regulation is senile and old fashioned. I believe it just makes economic sense for the investor.
Recently a lone French trader for a bank, using "proprietary trading funds", in the throes of breaking up with his girlfriend, took enormous options risk and....despite the bank even knowing about his risks, but not understanding it or choosing to ignore it for fear they would impede some gains, caused a 7 billion dollar loss.
Imagine what would happen worldwide if just a dozen or so financial professionals broke up with their girlfriends. Yes. Girls that is something to consider. You may think you are just breaking up....but you might just be causing a global catastrophe. Be True to your man....o.k.
In summary. The incredible catastrophe of ENRON was not just ENRON. The real catastrophe was that as a nation we have modeled our financial institutions on ENRON. And we have the major tactic of DELAY, the verb, not the noun.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
"The Syndicate"---or why you never can get the hot issues; On Allocation Rules, Theory and Practice
When a brokerage firm, through competitive bidding, has secured part of a "syndicate" to sell an IPO, it also secures for the firm, should it choose, to elect to keep some shares in lieu of commission, allocate shares to the preferred investors of the branch etc. These rules have been in some dispute over the years, and usually the dispute occurs on an initial public offering where the stock is a very popular offering that the public might bid up the stock right away and lots of money could be made quickly---the rules of allocation tend to favor those investors that have been the "best customers" of the firm, or have generated the most commissions. So. One way of testing this is to identify a public offering that you think will be very hot, and then try to get some of the stock. You might be frustrated with the fact that this might be very difficult to do, and you might be in line, and a very long line.
The IPO' or "Stop Reading and Start Selling" a true story
One of the glorious days for a corporation is the day it begins trading on the New York Stock Exchange or the NASDAQ. All the years of private financing and struggle to succeed come to a high point---and a big payday for original founders hopefully.
The essential facts of the IPO, or Initial Public Offering can be found in a google search. However, on an initial offering, there is no specific commission charge listed----it is paid by the offeror and the customer sometimes thinks it is a special deal. Not so.
Because of the lack of history on the new company, the stock exchange has rules that a prospectus must be prepared that details all the risks to the investor of purchase. One might think that this would be pretty educational....reading all the prospectuses and such. It is. However, one could spend all day reading them. The brokerage business is 99.99 about selling and .01% about analysis and reflection. I always loved reading the tech stocks prospectuses since there was usually some interesting stuff revealed that was heretofore not public knowledge.
The group of brokerage firms that have bid to handle the IPO are called the "syndicate." I have always loved that little info bit. There are so many ways the word syndicate can be used. In fact, if there is a really, really hot stock, you as a customer will probably never get your hands on any of that stock...cause it has been secured by the "syndicate", s slightly different meaning. More on that later.
The essential facts of the IPO, or Initial Public Offering can be found in a google search. However, on an initial offering, there is no specific commission charge listed----it is paid by the offeror and the customer sometimes thinks it is a special deal. Not so.
Because of the lack of history on the new company, the stock exchange has rules that a prospectus must be prepared that details all the risks to the investor of purchase. One might think that this would be pretty educational....reading all the prospectuses and such. It is. However, one could spend all day reading them. The brokerage business is 99.99 about selling and .01% about analysis and reflection. I always loved reading the tech stocks prospectuses since there was usually some interesting stuff revealed that was heretofore not public knowledge.
The group of brokerage firms that have bid to handle the IPO are called the "syndicate." I have always loved that little info bit. There are so many ways the word syndicate can be used. In fact, if there is a really, really hot stock, you as a customer will probably never get your hands on any of that stock...cause it has been secured by the "syndicate", s slightly different meaning. More on that later.
On Day Trading: The Football Game in Overtime
Some years ago, there was a craze among middle aged men. The video ads promised a course available by cassettee or cds that would teach the art of day trading---and furthermore, the promise was held out that you too could be truly independent through day trading.
Remember. I said it was a craze. The reality as I see it is that the average American does three roundtrip (6) trades a year. The average active day trader does 3 roundtrip or six trades a DAY.
Whether you are a writer, a musician, or a surgeon, repetition is important, and there is a learning curve with day trading. One gets better with experience, hopefully. It is an art that requires dedication, skill, speed and intelligence.....oh yes and nerves of steel. And it requires one to be prepared to be wrong 50% of the time....or more.
The most I have daytraded is 300 trades in one year. These were very small trades and done for educational purposes. To test out the odds of being right, and the odds of being wrong. My conclusion is that options and day trading are for the very rare few. The notion in the popular media that both these strategies are appropriate for the masses seems to be wrongheaded in the least and misrepresentation at the worst.
Remember. I said it was a craze. The reality as I see it is that the average American does three roundtrip (6) trades a year. The average active day trader does 3 roundtrip or six trades a DAY.
Whether you are a writer, a musician, or a surgeon, repetition is important, and there is a learning curve with day trading. One gets better with experience, hopefully. It is an art that requires dedication, skill, speed and intelligence.....oh yes and nerves of steel. And it requires one to be prepared to be wrong 50% of the time....or more.
The most I have daytraded is 300 trades in one year. These were very small trades and done for educational purposes. To test out the odds of being right, and the odds of being wrong. My conclusion is that options and day trading are for the very rare few. The notion in the popular media that both these strategies are appropriate for the masses seems to be wrongheaded in the least and misrepresentation at the worst.
On Investing; The football game
Last week was the Super Bowl. (2008) The entire week was filled with analysis and speculation. Lots of statistics on past. Line play. Passes attempted and completed. Psychological analysis. And yes the usual hype. There was not too much dispute really. The New England Patriots were destined to win the game...very clearly.
The Giants won.
The reason was simple. The game was played in the future not the past. And on that night, the Giants were better.
The question I have. Why so much analysis on football, and so little analysis by most folks in investments? Investing has all the same elements. And. I would suggest that a little less fanaticism on football and a little more on trading...would produce dramatically better trading results.
The Giants won.
The reason was simple. The game was played in the future not the past. And on that night, the Giants were better.
The question I have. Why so much analysis on football, and so little analysis by most folks in investments? Investing has all the same elements. And. I would suggest that a little less fanaticism on football and a little more on trading...would produce dramatically better trading results.
"The Gap; or Why Traders hesitate to use "Sell Stops"
Recently I have conversed with my younger brother, Denis, about the matter of "The GAP" ; We call him "the Northern Wolfman" because he lives in the cold Minnesota tundra. At first, Denis thought that "The GAP" was the store---and one he did not frequent much because the clothes did not fit real well.
"The GAP" is the when a stock opens trading up sharply or lower sharply and because the trading is not orderly, it gaps down leaving a blank spot in the "chart". This "gap" becomes visual notice that something is up. This would be like you noticing that your neighbor has 25 cars in the driveway. Something is up. It might be a party. Whatever.
The gap results from an inbalance in orders and by very definition this is where traders can make money. Volatility is opportunity.
The transition of the markets to being "global" has led to a problem-----if markets gap down overnight in Europe or Asia, if an investor has placed a "sell stop" order below the trading price of his investment, the sell order will execute, but not at the price intended, but at the "first trade" of the day on the exchange. Because that could only be a momentary plunge, many experienced brokers do not recommend use of sell stops, or at least resist the impulse to use "tight stops" because there might be an unintended result---the stock could plunge on opening, taking the investor out of the stock, and then go back up, leaving the investor a needless loss and needing to buy back in.
Technical traders who follow graphs and such ascribe all sorts of inferences to "gaps" and if one is interested in volatility, it is worthwhile reading up on this.
"The GAP" is the when a stock opens trading up sharply or lower sharply and because the trading is not orderly, it gaps down leaving a blank spot in the "chart". This "gap" becomes visual notice that something is up. This would be like you noticing that your neighbor has 25 cars in the driveway. Something is up. It might be a party. Whatever.
The gap results from an inbalance in orders and by very definition this is where traders can make money. Volatility is opportunity.
The transition of the markets to being "global" has led to a problem-----if markets gap down overnight in Europe or Asia, if an investor has placed a "sell stop" order below the trading price of his investment, the sell order will execute, but not at the price intended, but at the "first trade" of the day on the exchange. Because that could only be a momentary plunge, many experienced brokers do not recommend use of sell stops, or at least resist the impulse to use "tight stops" because there might be an unintended result---the stock could plunge on opening, taking the investor out of the stock, and then go back up, leaving the investor a needless loss and needing to buy back in.
Technical traders who follow graphs and such ascribe all sorts of inferences to "gaps" and if one is interested in volatility, it is worthwhile reading up on this.
Sunday, February 3, 2008
The Morning of Chernobyl
One of my favorite memories in the investment business was the Morning of Chernobyl. I got into the office early and reviewed my senior citizen clients who had purchased some utility trusts. I wondered what would happen at the open. I then wandered over to my guru broker's office, Bruce, of whom I have written earlier. He never came into the office that early so I figured something was wrong.
"What are you going to do this morn," I asked. "Well," he responded, while everybody is pretty scared about the Chernobyl deal, I will probably buy some utilities that I like if they correct at the open. "
Then he went on, " This is just life, in that we have to figure out the meaning of it all, only in this business, we have to do it by 8:30am. There is an urgency here so just get used to it. "
One of the things that I do miss about the investment business is that if you had an idea, there was always one of your competitive peers that would think you were nuts and disagree with you. That was very helpful. Believe me, there are some crazy things I have done, but there are a whole bunch that I avoided cause I listened to someone argue with me that the idea was crazy....so.
In many ways, in the morning, I am still doing what I did back in the 80's. I am going over what is in the news, trying to see what it means and COUNTING ON the readers to pick out the ideas that are just crazy so I avoid them. The farmers always had the morning coffee in town to chat---I always wondered what they talked about. It was really whether October beans were too high at 1.55. They argued over the issue. Is it best to close the position or hold? Out of the talk they avoided some solo crazy ideas.
In many ways, this is what the Observer is all about. And it is ok to talk and argue about ideas before action. In fact, it is far preferable to acting and then dimly realizing several years later that the plan of action was very, very, very wrong.
"What are you going to do this morn," I asked. "Well," he responded, while everybody is pretty scared about the Chernobyl deal, I will probably buy some utilities that I like if they correct at the open. "
Then he went on, " This is just life, in that we have to figure out the meaning of it all, only in this business, we have to do it by 8:30am. There is an urgency here so just get used to it. "
One of the things that I do miss about the investment business is that if you had an idea, there was always one of your competitive peers that would think you were nuts and disagree with you. That was very helpful. Believe me, there are some crazy things I have done, but there are a whole bunch that I avoided cause I listened to someone argue with me that the idea was crazy....so.
In many ways, in the morning, I am still doing what I did back in the 80's. I am going over what is in the news, trying to see what it means and COUNTING ON the readers to pick out the ideas that are just crazy so I avoid them. The farmers always had the morning coffee in town to chat---I always wondered what they talked about. It was really whether October beans were too high at 1.55. They argued over the issue. Is it best to close the position or hold? Out of the talk they avoided some solo crazy ideas.
In many ways, this is what the Observer is all about. And it is ok to talk and argue about ideas before action. In fact, it is far preferable to acting and then dimly realizing several years later that the plan of action was very, very, very wrong.
Saturday, February 2, 2008
P/E Matters
About twenty years ago, one of the hallmark technical indicators that folks looked at was the P/E ratio, or the price/earnings ratio. It was one of the key things folks talked about. Then, as has happened in every boom since the 1920's, it became inconvenient to look at the number. People were in the frenzy. They needed a new thing to concentrate on. So---they looked at future PE ratio and made up dreams of future earnings to justify buying higher and higher, and higher.
One of the stocks that comes to mind in this regard is QCOM, or Qualcomm. They were manufacturing, or in the process of developing the technology for the current cell phones that could transmit video and pictures. The P/E as I recall was 85 times earnings. The pundits always said that that was no longer important.
When the tech stocks imploded, everyone learned the rest of the story. P/E does matter. In every mania, the tendency is for folks to deny what has always been accepted valuation, and in time, those very folks become shocked when they discover that the old rules do matter.
One of the stocks that comes to mind in this regard is QCOM, or Qualcomm. They were manufacturing, or in the process of developing the technology for the current cell phones that could transmit video and pictures. The P/E as I recall was 85 times earnings. The pundits always said that that was no longer important.
When the tech stocks imploded, everyone learned the rest of the story. P/E does matter. In every mania, the tendency is for folks to deny what has always been accepted valuation, and in time, those very folks become shocked when they discover that the old rules do matter.
The Covered Call---the grandmother's option
Ed.note: The following is just a reflection and not a recommendation or advice in any way.)
Option trading is for the few. I say that even though in today's media pronouncements on options, mostly hyped by the options exchanges themselves, one would think that anyone who could lift a beer glass could also trade options. From my experience, options are for the young, the wealthy, and those with steel cold nerves.
As a person who was licensed in options, I quickly realized my background of midwest conservatism did not qualify me as an extreme risk taker. Yes. There was the thing about steel nerves, and even yes...age. Anyway. I wanted a way to learn about options and the way to do that was "The grandmother's option, or formally, "The covered call."
One trainer explained it me this way: On the opposite of every trade is a different risk. On the other side of the gambler is either the banker or the "grandmother." In the covered call, you are the grandmother. It is a calculated conservative risk. Yet it can be played aggressively and one can get the sense of the fast paced world of options.
The first part of the investment is the stock. You own the stock. Hopefully, you own it bought at a lower price. And it is a high quality stock. That is key. If it is a stock with three letters----it is a New York stock and that always meant higher liquidity for me. Another part of the game is that is is fun if the stock is one where there is some mystery about the future--maybe a buyout or such. And maybe there have been recurrent rumors over the past years, and the stock has spiked up and then down. When the stock has gone down, you buy the stock. And when it spikes up, you sell the covered call and get some money for the call. Then you buy the call back when the stock comes down and pocket the difference, or just let the call expire. For every call option there is a strike price and a month and year. Time and price interact daily on each call value.
The effect of playing with covered calls is kind of like riding a surf board. One has to judge the waves and time the transactions. You are never betting the farm on any transaction.
So. If you are conservative. And if you are not a wild gambler. You may have the temperment for the covered call. Any options exchange booklet can explain the details. Enjoy.
Option trading is for the few. I say that even though in today's media pronouncements on options, mostly hyped by the options exchanges themselves, one would think that anyone who could lift a beer glass could also trade options. From my experience, options are for the young, the wealthy, and those with steel cold nerves.
As a person who was licensed in options, I quickly realized my background of midwest conservatism did not qualify me as an extreme risk taker. Yes. There was the thing about steel nerves, and even yes...age. Anyway. I wanted a way to learn about options and the way to do that was "The grandmother's option, or formally, "The covered call."
One trainer explained it me this way: On the opposite of every trade is a different risk. On the other side of the gambler is either the banker or the "grandmother." In the covered call, you are the grandmother. It is a calculated conservative risk. Yet it can be played aggressively and one can get the sense of the fast paced world of options.
The first part of the investment is the stock. You own the stock. Hopefully, you own it bought at a lower price. And it is a high quality stock. That is key. If it is a stock with three letters----it is a New York stock and that always meant higher liquidity for me. Another part of the game is that is is fun if the stock is one where there is some mystery about the future--maybe a buyout or such. And maybe there have been recurrent rumors over the past years, and the stock has spiked up and then down. When the stock has gone down, you buy the stock. And when it spikes up, you sell the covered call and get some money for the call. Then you buy the call back when the stock comes down and pocket the difference, or just let the call expire. For every call option there is a strike price and a month and year. Time and price interact daily on each call value.
The effect of playing with covered calls is kind of like riding a surf board. One has to judge the waves and time the transactions. You are never betting the farm on any transaction.
So. If you are conservative. And if you are not a wild gambler. You may have the temperment for the covered call. Any options exchange booklet can explain the details. Enjoy.
An Introduction to Power
It was a hot Saturday night in New York in 1985. The young brokers in training were in second week of three, and mostly their money had run out---the suite of rooms at the swank mid town Manhatten hotel were paid for, but the real test of toughness was surviving on the small allowance. The very first day had been the eye opener. Flush at surviving the subway system returning from Battery Park, the brokers had ventured to have a quick cocktail at the Hyatt on the way home. After getting the bill, we realized.....at $10 a glass, the living allowance was going to last a week at that pace. So....beginning the third week, we were cooking spagetti in our room.
Hours afterward, as the brokers were getting ready for bed, the lone broker who had gone to the Broadway theatre came in----we all knew that somehow he had managed to pay the ticket price and now as he walked through the door, we noticed a stunning blond on his arm. He introduced her quickly as one of the actresses in the play he had seen. Then a quick hushed conversation with one of the brokers, and the two headed to the corner suite.
The broker was all smiles as he explained that this guy had given him $200 to sleep on the couch. Wow. What a windfall.
Just when I was about to ask who this guy thought he was, one of the guys told me.....he was the son of the owner of the World Trade Center. Over the years, the scene has made more and more sense to me.
Hours afterward, as the brokers were getting ready for bed, the lone broker who had gone to the Broadway theatre came in----we all knew that somehow he had managed to pay the ticket price and now as he walked through the door, we noticed a stunning blond on his arm. He introduced her quickly as one of the actresses in the play he had seen. Then a quick hushed conversation with one of the brokers, and the two headed to the corner suite.
The broker was all smiles as he explained that this guy had given him $200 to sleep on the couch. Wow. What a windfall.
Just when I was about to ask who this guy thought he was, one of the guys told me.....he was the son of the owner of the World Trade Center. Over the years, the scene has made more and more sense to me.
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