Tuesday, February 5, 2008

On Day Trading: The Football Game in Overtime

Some years ago, there was a craze among middle aged men. The video ads promised a course available by cassettee or cds that would teach the art of day trading---and furthermore, the promise was held out that you too could be truly independent through day trading.

Remember. I said it was a craze. The reality as I see it is that the average American does three roundtrip (6) trades a year. The average active day trader does 3 roundtrip or six trades a DAY.

Whether you are a writer, a musician, or a surgeon, repetition is important, and there is a learning curve with day trading. One gets better with experience, hopefully. It is an art that requires dedication, skill, speed and intelligence.....oh yes and nerves of steel. And it requires one to be prepared to be wrong 50% of the time....or more.

The most I have daytraded is 300 trades in one year. These were very small trades and done for educational purposes. To test out the odds of being right, and the odds of being wrong. My conclusion is that options and day trading are for the very rare few. The notion in the popular media that both these strategies are appropriate for the masses seems to be wrongheaded in the least and misrepresentation at the worst.