"Sanguine"

When you are a "sanguine" investor, it means you can win either way---when the market plunges, you can say "Yippie" and when it skyrockets you can say..."Yippie". You are prepared to win either way. When one invests so that winning occurs when things go up, you are really just a cheerleader...or an athletic supporter...You are not in the big leagues. Another word that is an equilivant to the word "sangine" is "Peace."

Learning from Failure; In stocks, In surfing, In everything

Chinese Fortune Cookie Corner: "Welcome Failure: Failure is the Breakfast of Champions"---a true story (2007) Yesterday I had to take my youngest to Janesville for a driver education road lesson. Before the lesson, we had a little time together for her to shop and then to share a bit of Chinese at the Food Court. I have a habit of opening the fortune cookie first--- before the meal. The Fortune Cookie read: " Welcome Failure: Failure is the Breakfast of Champions." I have mentioned in an earlier post, that over thirty years ago, right after a fortune cookie that read, "Not Now, but Soon," I had received a layoff from an employer. Ever since, I have paid strict attention to those fortune cookies. That being said, I wish they were more precise. The vagueness in unnerving. Relax. The driving lesson went fine. I think the Chinese were directing the fortune cookie towards those who did not know that the world of school and life are different. Nobody gets 99.992% success all the time and still ranks at the median of the class. Most folks are blessed with enough failures so they have a balanced view of their strengths and weaknesses. Or at least the whims of the world. After reflection, I feel pretty confident that I have had enough failures thank you. I do not need any more. What about failure in stock trading? Well, the pace has picked up. It used to be that one would review annually which investments had worked out, and which had not, and whether to take losses or gains, and "rebalance" the portfolio to the future. Or maybe a surfer, after looking out and seeing a wave that surely must be the largest wave he has ever seen, and catching it, finds out that it is a dud. The surfer does not then go onto the shore, review what he did wrong...vow to to better etc...and spend lots of time....no the true man of the waves, or yes woman of the waves, just quickly picks a new wave.... The newage surfer, picking an investment, has to note whether the volume and price action has gone against the position, and yes whether in fact the investment is working according to the theory---and then cut the loss quickly if the data was incorrectly viewed.....and that process of recognizing failure, and very,very quickly...did I say "very" is the most important part of the equation. Thus...the true nerves of steel, the James Bond winning style, is a style of recognizing failure quickly...ya its not a sexy as a casino scene,,but it is what works.

Where have all the Investors Gone?

If you read the Wall Street Journal or any of the business magazines or newspapers, one would think that every American is an investor? In truth, we have become a nation of mostly fixed investors scarred by the recent Crashes...and most of the trading is done by computer quants for large hedge firms or banking institutions and their propreitary divisions, and yes those are the very ones that inevitably do not supervise their employees very well...and thus...there are trading losses...like the recent one for 8 billion dollars by the "London Whale." These trading machines and their minions are adored by the current business model, and thus they have short names like movie stars, maybe Cher, Rocky IV, Bond etc....They are the "quants", the programmers, sitting in the room with all the screens, and if not writing some new code for automatic buys, they are playing poker or some other game. It is a new world.

"Buying the Tear Gas; Selling the Peace"

TUESDAY, JUNE 28, 2011 Buying the Tear Gas; Selling the Peace: Well today the news is all filled with the riots in the streets of Greece. It seems that Wall Street this morning is very optimistic that a deal can be reached by the Greek legislature so that minimum wage earners have their wages cut---its called the new austerity. It seems that the IMF and Wall Steet is real excited about this prospect for Greece....and who knows maybe for the United States too....just wait a few months or years.... In reviewing the news last week, it seemed that every day the financial markets were switching emotions faster than a love sick teenager---one might surmise that this was all rational behavior. From my perspective it was just one planted story by the bulls who owned calls or the bears who owned puts, and all just in time for option expiration. In short, most of what we have been reading is just bought and paid for by the commercial gamblers on Wall Street----and while I revel in the new freedom of online publishing, with blogs etc, I mourn the chaos that has produced mostly the tower of babel in real time. Thats how I see it. And you?

"Jersey is my backup"

If you go on a docent tour of Wall Street, you might hear one of the docents say that in a time of emergency, one must be calm because after all...."Jersey is the backup."" After the recent Hurricane Sandy, ya think this might be reviewed? Ya think that maybe Omaha, NE would be considered an alterntive? How about Keokuk, Iowa.....The magic of New York is that despite everything, they still have the ability to stare at their navel in wonder.