Saturday, November 10, 2012

Learning from Failure; In stocks, In surfing, In everything

Chinese Fortune Cookie Corner: "Welcome Failure: Failure is the Breakfast of Champions"---a true story (2007) Yesterday I had to take my youngest to Janesville for a driver education road lesson. Before the lesson, we had a little time together for her to shop and then to share a bit of Chinese at the Food Court. I have a habit of opening the fortune cookie first--- before the meal. The Fortune Cookie read: " Welcome Failure: Failure is the Breakfast of Champions." I have mentioned in an earlier post, that over thirty years ago, right after a fortune cookie that read, "Not Now, but Soon," I had received a layoff from an employer. Ever since, I have paid strict attention to those fortune cookies. That being said, I wish they were more precise. The vagueness in unnerving. Relax. The driving lesson went fine. I think the Chinese were directing the fortune cookie towards those who did not know that the world of school and life are different. Nobody gets 99.992% success all the time and still ranks at the median of the class. Most folks are blessed with enough failures so they have a balanced view of their strengths and weaknesses. Or at least the whims of the world. After reflection, I feel pretty confident that I have had enough failures thank you. I do not need any more. What about failure in stock trading? Well, the pace has picked up. It used to be that one would review annually which investments had worked out, and which had not, and whether to take losses or gains, and "rebalance" the portfolio to the future. Or maybe a surfer, after looking out and seeing a wave that surely must be the largest wave he has ever seen, and catching it, finds out that it is a dud. The surfer does not then go onto the shore, review what he did wrong...vow to to better etc...and spend lots of time....no the true man of the waves, or yes woman of the waves, just quickly picks a new wave.... The newage surfer, picking an investment, has to note whether the volume and price action has gone against the position, and yes whether in fact the investment is working according to the theory---and then cut the loss quickly if the data was incorrectly viewed.....and that process of recognizing failure, and very,very quickly...did I say "very" is the most important part of the equation. Thus...the true nerves of steel, the James Bond winning style, is a style of recognizing failure quickly...ya its not a sexy as a casino scene,,but it is what works.