Wednesday, January 23, 2008

The Risky World of Bonds; or "With a Ginny Mae, You Lose in Every Way."---the story

If you are an experienced investor, or simply older person, you know that there are many ways to lose money in this world. Life is simply about "risk" and "risk assessment". Usually in times of economic stress, folks rush to secure investments. Or, more precisely, what they "think" are secure investments. That rush can be dangersous if the risk is not viewed properly.

So, I wanted to share a little jingle I learned on Wall Street many years ago. The jingle goes, "With a GinnyMae, you lose in every way."

The jingle highlights the perils of investing in bonds in a rising interest rate environment. This may or may not be the world you face right now. Usually bond investors are folks like my father, who invested monthly in bonds, and had a bond guide next to the Bible on the night stand. A child of the depression and WWII years. Back in 1973, it became necessary to review these bonds as interest rates skyrocketed in the Jimmy Carter years. It was not a pretty picture. Bonds took huge losses. It was a lesson I have never forgotten. It is one you need to know.

If you buy a bond as interest rates rise, say at 7%. You are pleased. The rate seems high. The next day, the rate goes to 7.5% Now if you hold the bond to maturity, you will get your principal plus interest, if the company does not default. However, make a note of it, most people sell prior to maturity. So if you wanted to sell that bond on the following day you would lose. After all, who would buy one at 7% when the 7.5% were available.

You may wonder about the GinnyMae jingle. The phrase "every way". In a decreasing interest rate market, people refinance the underlying mortgages and the bond trust usually gets paid off early--just what you don't want. Now you have money to invest with rates lower. So you have investment rate risk. So either in rising or dropping rates you tend to lose..That was the point of the jingle.

The overall point of the jingle is that you CAN lose with bond investments. If you don't understand how this can happen, ask your investment advisor. The purpose of the jingle is just to get your attention.